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Maths R Fun |
jamesbob
Grand Admiral
Joined: August 22, 2009
Posts: 410
|  Posted: 2010-11-15 10:07
Quote:
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On 2010-11-15 09:56, Germane Riposte wrote:
It's like...
There are 200 ships in Tau Ceti and 200 ships in Kaus Borealis.
In Tau Ceti, 199 of the ships are Dreadnoughts, and one is a Cruiser. In Kaus Borealis, 199 of the ships are Cruisers, and one is a Dreadnought.
If you enter a wormhole that randomly exits in either of the two systems, you have a 50% probability of being in either system.
The moment you observe a Dreadnought, you think, "Oh, I'm probably in Tau Ceti", because you have a 0.5% chance of seeing a Dreadnought in Kaus Borealis.
99.5% probability of being in Tau Ceti. You CAN still be in Borealis, the Probability's just low.
You can't say, "Well, the probability is still 50/50 because I entered that wormhole and bugger all with observations".
It's more likely that you will see a Dread in Tau, so you're more likely to be in Tau.
Just the same. It's more likely you'll see a Heads on Coin A, so it's more likely you grabbed Coin A than Coin B.
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i loved how you failed to get the real meaning of my post.
but i shall explain
i quote depending on how you do the maths (aka the correct way or the wrong way)
depending on your point of view (aka screwed up and logical)
you litteraly wasted a lecture so please laugh with me as i say
GOT YAH 
ps that crap on the buttom was designed to get you to post a lecture
pps i am extremely bored
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Shigernafy
Admiral
Joined: May 29, 2001
Posts: 5726
From: The Land of Taxation without Representation
| Posted: 2010-11-15 12:16
So... you're being intentionally ignorant and writing posts which bait others in order to annoy and frustrate them? Sounds like a textbook case of griefing.
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Bardiche
Chief Marshal
Joined: November 16, 2006
Posts: 1247
| Posted: 2010-11-15 15:46
Can I report him for trolling/grieving, then?
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jamesbob
Grand Admiral
Joined: August 22, 2009
Posts: 410
| Posted: 2010-11-15 22:13
Quote:
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On 2010-11-15 12:16, Shigernafy wrote:
So... you're being intentionally ignorant and writing posts which bait others in order to annoy and frustrate them? Sounds like a textbook case of griefing.
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techinely no i am making post designed to point out if you guys want to have a agument oversomething so small you are going to get screwed with
and do not even dare say your not because it would be a lie
somesays its a 50 50 you say use your brain its 75 25 and this goes on and on and on  .
i am not trying to be rude or mean just pointing out that internet fights are a waste of time as they achieve nothing.
now if you want to try to keep this going i am not going to say anything i will leave you to your problem.
[ This Message was edited by: jamesbob on 2010-11-15 23:00 ]
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Pakhos[+R]
Chief Marshal
Pitch Black
Joined: May 31, 2002
Posts: 1352
From: Clean room lab
| Posted: 2010-11-16 06:04
[ This Message was edited by: Pakhos[+R] on 2010-11-16 06:05 ]
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[-GTN-]BackSlash: "Azreal is a master of showing me what is horribly broken in the game."
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Gejaheline
Fleet Admiral
Galactic Navy
Joined: March 19, 2005
Posts: 1127
From: UGTO MUNIN HQ, Mars
| Posted: 2010-11-16 07:30
Having read it through again...
Yeah, it's two-thirds, as unintuitive as it might seem.
To use the converse argument:
You have one two-headed coin, and one normal coin.
You close your eyes, select one at random, and flip it.
The coin turns up tails.
What is the probability, based on that information, that you've picked up the normal coin? A cookie goes to the first person with the correct answer.
Hint: It's not 50%.
The brain-warper here is that the 50% chance of randomly selecting a coin becomes irrelevant once you've picked one and flipped it, since that event has already happened and therefore the probability of picking the coin you picked is 100%, since there's zero chance of looking in your hand and finding that somehow your coin has swapped with the one on the table. Once you realise that, the probability is indeed the two-thirds of "I got a head, therefore the coin I picked is most likely the two-headed coin since it has more heads on it."
So the question can be phrased differently, the maths behind it change somewhat because the order of events is different, but in this case the result is the same.
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SpaceAdmiral
Grand Admiral
Joined: May 05, 2010
Posts: 1005
| Posted: 2010-11-16 19:16
Quote:
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On 2010-11-15 22:13, jamesbob wrote:
Quote:
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On 2010-11-15 12:16, Shigernafy wrote:
So... you're being intentionally ignorant and writing posts which bait others in order to annoy and frustrate them? Sounds like a textbook case of griefing.
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techinely no i am making post designed to point out if you guys want to have a agument oversomething so small you are going to get screwed with
and do not even dare say your not because it would be a lie
somesays its a 50 50 you say use your brain its 75 25 and this goes on and on and on .
i am not trying to be rude or mean just pointing out that internet fights are a waste of time as they achieve nothing.
now if you want to try to keep this going i am not going to say anything i will leave you to your problem.
[ This Message was edited by: jamesbob on 2010-11-15 23:00 ]
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if you aren't going to contribute, be productive, or be funny (lolwut picture posters) you really shouldn't post.
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